Real estate experts predict trends

Monday, 08 February 2010

By Ashley Fletcher Frampton
aframpton@scbiznews.com

CHARLESTON -- Younger generations looking for smaller homes, urban lifestyles and sustainable communities are among the forces that will shape the future of real estate development, two local experts said Friday.

Those younger generations will also question the value of homeownership, something developers must overcome, said Diana Permar, principal of local real estate consulting firm Permar Inc.

Permar, speaking to a crowd of more than 200 developers, attorneys, planners and others gathered in downtown Charleston for the state’s annual Urban Land Institute conference, didn’t try to predict when the market will rebound.

Instead, she and fellow speaker Jim Chaffin, a principal with the development firm Chaffin Light Associates, painted a picture of what trends will drive development when it does.

Some of the shifts in demand are related to demographics and were emerging before the economy sank, the speakers said. Others are results of new, post-recession values.

Generational shifts

Chaffin said the baby boomer generation, those ages 45 to 63, has shaped real estate demand in the United States for years. The baby boomer generation represents about 78 million people.

That generation’s children, known as “echo boomers,” total about 76 million. With immigrants adding to that cohort, the echo boomers will eventually outnumber their parents’ generation, Chaffin said.

“They are our housing market,” he said.

Unlike their parents and grandparents, Permar said younger generations have seen risk associated with homeownership and will not necessarily view real estate as a safe investment.

That means a higher demand for rental housing.

Permar said the U.S. rate of homeownership peaked at 69% a couple of year ago, and it’s expected to fall to around 62% to 64% in the next few years.

Among those who will buy in the future, the demand will be for smaller homes, Permar said. Also, buyers will look for homes they can own for longer periods of time – homes that can adapt as their lives change.

Buyers will no longer look at houses as automatic teller machines, she said.

“Housing becomes housing again,” Permar said.

Over the last five years, Permar said many in the baby boomer generation have turned 50, which is the average age for buying second homes. Many have also turned 60, which is the average age for buying retirement homes.

Some developers think boomers hitting those milestones are waiting for the market to turn before making the usual real estate investments, Permar said.

But she thinks the moment may have passed for some 50- and 60-year-olds. Instead of buying new real estate, they have moved on.

“We shouldn’t depend on them,” she said.

Urban and suburban cores

Chaffin said a trend with both baby boomers and echo boomers is a desire to live in urban areas. The shift creates challenges for both generations and for developers.

Many in the boomer generation will try to sell their suburban “McMansions” in order to downsize and move to more diverse communities, Permar said.

Their challenge is that the generation between boomers and echo boomers – those who would be in a position to buy the McMansions – is a much smaller group, she said. So not everyone who wants to sell their large suburban home and move to the city will be able to do so.

Chaffin said echo boomers’ demand for urban housing presents a different challenge: Young parents might prefer to send their children to public schools in the suburbs. As a result, he predicted the increasing emergence of suburban town centers with amenities similar to those in cities.

Developers also face challenges in urban development, Chaffin said. Land is more difficult to find than on the fringes, it often costs more, and developers can face intense opposition from downtown residents resistant to change.

Green and sustainable

Both speakers said the move toward sustainable development and green building practices is a given.

“Frankly, it’s only a matter of time before all new buildings will be green buildings,” Chaffin said.

Developers who don’t believe that “will be roadkill,” he said.

Making the United States more energy efficient and less reliant on foreign oil requires more than new technologies like hybrid cars and wind turbines, Chaffin said. Land development patterns that reduce dependence on cars must be part of the answer.

Permar said the post-recession consumer mindset will reject ego-driven spending. Instead, consumers will focus more on sustainability and not being wasteful.

She told developers that their future success will come from conveying clearly what their values are and what values will shape the communities they build.

“It’s not just about price – it’s about value. And it’s about values,” Permar said.

Published Feb. 8, 2010

Economist sees slow revival in commercial real estate

Thursday, 04 February 2010
By Mike Fitts

COLUMBIA -- Real estate markets are likely to be bottoming out in 2010 and the slow pace of deals will begin to revive, according to a top economist at Grubb & Ellis.

Robert Bach, the national firm’s chief economist, gave his forecast of the market’s future to a gathering of Columbia real estate professionals Wednesday morning. While values and prices might still descend further, much of the damage has been done, he said.

“This is the year when people will be peeking out of their bunkers,” Bach said.

His optimism was reflected in an instant electronic survey of the room conducted by the firm’s local affiliate, Grubb & Ellis Wilson Kibler. The survey found that 69% of those in attendance held more optimism for 2010 over the past year.

Commercial real estate credit will continue to be tight, but lenders are expected to extend loans to existing customers, rather than take over properties in such a market, Bach said.

Credit is still a major problem for local real estate, according to the company’s audience survey. The survey found that 49% said that financing is the biggest obstacle to their success right now.

Office vacancy rates nationally are near a 20-year high and could peak in 2010. Rents will continue a gradual decline, he said.

Tenants are looking to make new leases in their current locations at better rates, more often than they are seeking to relocate, Bach said.

In Columbia, office vacancies will peak by mid-year, with rents reaching a low too, according to the company’s market projection.

Nationally, employment will bottom out, with better and worse months alternating. A revival in employment and wage growth is necessary to get consumers back into spending, he said. When they do, there is some pent-up consumer demand that could buoy retailers.

“My sense overall is that the economy will make it through this,” Bach said.

Poll shows voters opposed to Point of Sale tax

Columbia, S.C. – Ohio based company, Fallon Research and Communications, recently surveyed SC registered voters about the Point of Sale tax. The findings concluded that 70% of respondents are opposed to the current law. "The point of sale tax is opposed by an overwhelming majority of voters. There is little doubt about opposition to it,” said Paul Fallon, President of Fallon Research & Communications, an Ohio-based research firm. The survey was released by SC Realtors (SCR) as a part of the statewide STOP THE UNFAIR TAX campaign.

Forty two percent of respondents agree that improving the economy and attracting jobs should be top priority for our state leaders. "Voters see the point of sale tax as a flawed policy for a number of reasons, particularly in the context of a tough economy. Given the current voter emphasis on jobs, and the fact that this policy has hurt the local economy, it not surprising that a majority (53 percent) of respondents think this is convincing enough to eliminate the current point of sale tax,” added Fallon.

"A large majority of South Carolina's voters believe that the point of sale tax is unfair and that it is hurting our economy," said SCR CEO, Nick Kremydas. "Voters get it. They understand that the current point of sale tax is flawed. Because of the unfair point of sale tax, some companies have said they will not relocate or open new businesses in our state. In a tough economy, the last thing we need are taxes that eliminate jobs and prevent new businesses from opening in South Carolina.”

In a separate survey question, 53 percent of respondents believe the point of sale tax is unfair because it results in different tax rates for identical homes in the same neighborhood.

"Some people argue that this tax is needed and that it helps local governments. In fact, the point of sale tax is hurting the real estate market because it allows local governments to dramatically increase property taxes on homes, land and businesses when they are sold," Kremydas stated. “And clearly, a majority of voters are not comfortable with local governments spending funds collected from the tax any way they want.”

"This poll suggests that voters will have little tolerance for taxes and policies that have a direct financial consequence for them," said Paul Fallon. "The results leave no question that voters think the point of sale policy is a flawed one, especially with its potential to hurt the economy."

For a copy of the Fallon key findings memo, and to learn more about the STOP THE UNFAIR TAX campaign, visit http://www.ItsJustNotFair.org


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About South Carolina Realtors

South Carolina Realtors is the premiere source for real estate trends and property information in the Palmetto State. With more than 17,000 members across the state, Realtors are working to improve the quality of life in South Carolina. REALTOR® is a registered trademark that identifies a professional in real estate who subscribes to a strict code of ethics as a member of SCR and the National Association of REALTORS®.

STOP The UNFAIR Tax

Dear South Carolina Voter,

Last week you heard from us about The Stop the Unfair Tax campaign - which aims to educate South Carolina families and businesses about a flawed law called "point of sale." The current law allows local governments the right to charge higher property taxes when businesses are sold, or someone wants to buy a home.

What's worse is some local governments have seen a huge windfall from this tax, and even increased spending at a time when you and I have cut back. That’s not right, it’s not fair, and we must put a stop to this now! City and county government lobbyists are working hard to keep this unfair tax, but we can stop them if we work together.

We have a unique opportunity - THIS WEEK - to help fix this flawed law, and get our economy back on track. Together we can stop this unfair tax. It’s simple: go to http://www.itsjustnotfair.org/and:

1. Click “Take Action” and then the “Contact Your Legislator”;
2. Send an email (it takes less than five minutes) to your state representative and senator; and
3. Forward the message to your friends and family.

Let your voice be heard - use our action center to tell the politicians that it’s time to fix the unfair tax - and stop listening to special interests lobbyists for cities and counties - by supporting a current bill - HB 3272 - that will fix the problem, and help get our state’s economy moving again!

Sincerely,

Stop the Unfair Tax Campaign

PS-Please act today - the window to change this law is closing!

Paid for by the South Carolina REALTORS® Association.

Plotting a comeback

Stability key to local real estate rebound

By Katy Stech
The Post and Courier
Monday, January 25, 2010

By retail standards, you could say Lowcountry homes have been selling off the discount rack.

Home prices across the Charleston region fell last year by 9 percent, the steepest year-over-year drop in recent memory, to a median of $181,286. That's off nearly 14 percent from the region's peak annual price of $209,742 set in 2007.

The drop reflects Charleston's oversupply of homes, a number that now tops 9,000, which has grown as lenders try to unload their foreclosed properties and cash-strapped homeowners face the harsh reality they can't afford the roofs over their heads anymore.

Against that, the tough economy has rendered fewer qualified buyers with enough savings or stable employment. By lowering price, sellers, banks and builders all are trying to hook one of those buyers.


The region's median price is calculated by the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors based on all homes sold during 2009 through the group's Multiple Listing Service. For that reason, the decline could be skewed to reflect the makeup of who's buying homes -- a mix of investors, young professionals and employed Charleston newcomers -- more so than the typical home's value.

But the trend also suggests that many current homeowners, especially those who bought around the peak of the market without a sizeable down payment, have built up little equity and probably owe more than their homes are worth.

The good news, however, is that the overall price decline didn't affect all Charleston neighborhoods evenly. Areas with fewer homes listed for sale, such as northern Mount Pleasant and outer West Ashley, saw their prices stabilize -- a function of "good ole supply and demand," as Goose Creek real estate agent Ralph Wetherell pointed out.

Trends also show that more purchasers -- some of whom could tap a generous $8,000 federal tax credit if they qualified as first-time buyers -- flocked to modestly priced neighborhoods.

"It's simply addressing a real pent-up demand that people have had for a long time for affordable housing," said Karen Abrams, a Keller Williams agent.

And the data shows that some areas that did see major price drops were given a consolation prize: a steady trickle of home sales. Dorchester County, for example, recorded 1,948 residential transactions throughout the year, just one fewer than in 2008.

Seeking stability

The health of the residential real estate business plays an enormous role in any economy, as the industry provides the underpinnings for variety of spin-off services: furniture sales, bank lending and remodeling jobs, to name a few.

Frank Hefner, an economics professor at the College of Charleston, said the recent leveling-off of sales could foreshadow a market recovery.

"And even if prices are down, the fact that sales are improving or stabilizing is what everyone's going to grasp at this as a sign of the bottom," he said.

At the top end of the housing spectrum, the luxury market -- both oceanfront and in downtown Charleston -- faltered last year. Prices fell by tens of thousands of dollars as buyers shied away from purchasing second homes during shaky economic times.

"Their desire to be here hasn't changed," said Charles Sullivan of Carriage Properties, a downtown Charleston real estate firm. "They were just waiting for that period of time they thought was the right time."

He noted that toward the end of 2009, more high-end buyers started to emerge as their stock market and investment portfolios recovered some of their value.

Feeling better

While most experts agree that the Charleston market recovery is beginning to take hold, it lags behind the housing recoveries in other major cities with larger employment bases.

Charlotte, for example, began to see an uptick in housing permits last fall, and other cities such as Denver, Dallas and San Diego are recording home sales prices that are virtually unchanged from a year ago because their values fell so hard early on in the recession, according to the widely watched Case Shiller home price index.

Jeremy Willits, president of the local Realtors association, said as local home prices level out, the recovery should pick up speed because more consumers will become comfortable with buying real estate again.

"Seeing the stable home prices will give people more confidence, and that was something that was really lacking in 2009," Willits said. "Their confidence was so damaged by the financial meltdown" that began to spread in the second half of 2008.

That renewed sense of confidence could attract to the market more middle- to upper-class buyers, who were scarce last year. Hefner warned, though, that those buyers still could hesitate to move into more expensive homes, acting out of caution.

"If you're looking at the new era of frugality, I don't know how long (the price drops) are going to last," Hefner said. "People who went through this major financial downturn -- will this change their pattern? Will this change them permanently?"

Another open question for the industry to ponder goes to the behavior of first-time buyers: Will they still be in the market for homes once the federal government's $8,000 tax credit expires in April?

Around the state

How South Carolina and its four biggest housing markets stacked up:

Region Homes sold Median price*

--Charleston 7,446 (-6.1%) $183,000 (-9.4%)

--Columbia 7,608 (-9.9%) $150,000 (-15.3%)

--Greater Greenville 6,447 (-14.4%) $140,000 (-7.9%)

--Grand Strand 5,919 (+5.4%) $140,000 (-2.4%)

--Statewide 46,290 (-8.5%) $141,000 (-8.4%)

*Rounded to nearest thousandths

Residential Real Estate Sales Increase Again in December

Residential Real Estate Sales Increase Again in December
Median Sale Prices at Annual Peak

CHARLESTON, SC—(January 12, 2010) Rounding out a year of stabilization, 618 residential real estate sales in December shows an increase of 30% when compared to sales one year ago today. The $195,534 median home price reflects the peak of prices in 2009 and a slight 2% increase over December 2008. December 2008 posted 476 total closings, with a median sale price of $191,600.

Several months of strong sales, prices that are growing at a sustainable rate and decreasing inventory are excellent indicators that a Charleston market recovery is underway. “Last December, we were looking at a 33% drop in sales and a 9% decrease in median prices from December 2007. We’re in a much more positive place at the end of 2009, actually seeing market increases. While we don’t anticipate tremendous growth in 2010, we do expect to see continued steady growth over the next year”, said CTAR President, Jeremy Willits.

3-Year Review: December*

Sales + - % Median Sale Price + - %
2009 618 +30% $195,534 +2%
2008 476 -33% $191,600 -9%
2007 713 - $210,000 -

*this data reflects the market activity as of the 10th of January for each year.

At the close of the month, there were 8,940 homes listed for sale with the Charleston Trident Multiple Listing Service.

The 2009 Year in Review market report will be released next Wednesday, January 20.

BERKELEY COUNTY
The Berkeley County market remains stable when compared with December of 2008. Last year, 145 properties were sold at a median price of $173,000. In December 2009, 141 properties changed hands at a median price of $170,112.

CHARLESTON COUNTY
Once again, Charleston County leads the region in sales and price increases. Last December, 239 properties changed hands at a median price of $235,000. This year, 313 properties were sold at a median price of $250,000, equating to a 31% increase in sales and a 6% increase in sale price.

DORCHESTER COUNTY
Dorchester County showed a slight 3% increase in sales over December 2008—142 homes sold in 2008 and 146 sold in December 2009. Prices show a 14% decline from last December’s uncharacteristic peak of $195,808 to a more typical price of $167,830.

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With approximately 4,000 members, CTAR’s mission is to promote the highest standards of professionalism, ethics, education and technology, and to ensure that its members are the primary source for real estate services in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Only those who are members of the Association of REALTORS® and its parent organizations are called REALTORS®. To learn more, visit www.CharlestonRealtors.com

Even as interest rate edge up slightly over the past few weeks, rates are still at an all time low historically.

Graph courtsey of Grey Meyer, Carolina One Mortgage, 843-224-0551